With the urban water supply at 73 percent of usable capacity—its lowest level since 2002—you would think Charlottesville would at least be under a drought watch, as it has been the previous two years. But the “state-of-the-art hydrologic computer modeling” of the Rivanna Water and Sewer Authority (RWSA) predicts only a 12 percent chance of drought.
“[The computer model] currently sees fall just around the horizon, with cooler temperatures and vegetation soon going dormant for winter—suggesting a high probability that relief will come before reservoir levels get critically low,” says Tom Frederick, RWSA executive director, in a press release today.
Specifically, the model predicts that in 12 weeks the usable reservoir storage will be 80 percent full. The benchmark for a drought watch is a 20 percent chance that it won’t be 80 percent full in 12 weeks. Over the course of August, the probability has increased to 12 percent from 7 percent.
The real problem may be for well water users, who make up 50 percent of Albemarle County residents. The county sent out a press release today warning that groundwater levels are “critically low” and asked citizens for voluntary conservation efforts.