More than a week after election day, the results of the Republican primary in Virginia’s 5th district remain up in the air. After a campaign riddled with barbs between incumbent Bob Good and state Senator John McGuire, election day saw a razor-thin margin between the two ultra-conservatives.
Things in the 5th district have been ramping up for months and fully kicked into overdrive when Donald Trump endorsed McGuire in late May. Though Good has since endorsed Trump’s 2024 bid for the presidency, his original backing of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis soured him to Trump loyalists in the Republican party.
“Bob Good is BAD FOR VIRGINIA, AND BAD FOR THE USA,” Trump shared in a May 28 Truth Social post formally endorsing McGuire. “He turned his back on our incredible movement and was constantly attacking and fighting me until recently.”
Between the Trump endorsement and McGuire’s accelerated fundraising leading up to the primary, Miles Coleman, associate editor of the Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, says, “If there was any surprise here, it’s that Good held up as well as he did. … For [Good] only to lose by a relative handful of votes, I think that says something about how resilient he was.”
Vote totals point toward a narrow victory for McGuire, but Good has told constituents not to count him out yet.
“This race remains too close to call,” Good posted on X/Twitter on June 19. “We are asking for full transparency from the officials involved and patience from the people of the 5th District over the coming weeks as the certification of results is completed. We believe we can still prevail.”
Since election day, Good and his supporters have become increasingly critical of the results, with the congressman blaming election fraud for his potential loss. Campaign Manager Diana Shores repeated these claims in a comment via email, citing concerns around procedural issues in Albemarle County, Buckingham County, and Lynchburg.
McGuire’s team has not addressed the allegations of election fraud in the 5th district primary. The challenger declared victory just after midnight on June 19, well before any election results could be verified.
“My life is a testament to the fact that America is the greatest country on this planet and I’m so honored to have the chance to serve her again,” McGuire shared on X/Twitter. “Folks in the 5th can rest assured that should they elect me in Nov., they will have an effective fighter in Congress who will get the job done for them.”
As of press time, the results of the race have not been certified, but Good has preemptively called for a recount and investigation of election practices. He has also cited concerns about fires at three precincts on election day. No actual fires occurred at the precincts, though election officials told ABC 13 that fire alarms were triggered at three precincts. Voting access was reportedly restored at each location within 30 minutes.
Current counts have McGuire ahead by 344 votes.
“There is a saying among poll workers: May your turnout be high and your margins wide,” says Coleman. “This election kind of had neither, because it was fairly low turnout and … the margin obviously isn’t wide.”
Accusations of election fraud aren’t common among members of the same party, but both Good and McGuire have a history of election denial. Both candidates publicly questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election, with McGuire attending a “Stop the Steal” event on January 6, 2021, and Good voting against certifying election results as a member of the House.
If Good ends up losing the primary, Coleman says it’s anyone’s guess whether he doubles down as an “agent of chaos” or tries to improve his relationship with Republican leadership in anticipation of future campaign efforts.
While either McGuire or Good will still have to face Democratic primary winner Gloria Witt in November, whoever wins the Republican primary is likely to win the general election, according to Coleman.
“I would still put [VA-5 as] safe Republican,” he says. “This is a district where the Democrats can get maybe 45 to 46 percent of the vote pretty easily, but getting much past that is hard. … The last time this [district] flipped to a Democrat was in ‘08 with Tom Perriello.”
Control of the House of Representatives is expected to be close between the two parties this year, leading Democrats to focus resources on more competitive races.
“From the Democratic perspective, they have a few targets in Virginia that are kind of sexier,” says Coleman. “They very much want to oust Kiggans in the Virginia Beach area. District 7, the Spanberger seat, well that is a blue district, but one that they can’t take for granted.”
As of press time, a timeline for the recount in the VA-5 Republican primary has not been announced.
