Categories
News

Democratic performance down in Virginia, even for reelected candidates

After a turbulent and historic Election Day, most results are in across the commonwealth. From the White House to Town Council, here’s the Virginia Department of Elections’ unofficial results for how locals voted in the 2024 election.

Amid a disappointing night for Democrats, Virginia’s 13 electoral votes went to Vice President Kamala Harris. Voters in Charlottesville and Albemarle leaned heavily blue across the board, with roughly 84 percent and 66 percent of the respective electorates casting their ballots for Harris. Surrounding counties generally leaned toward Donald Trump.

While Harris won Virginia with 52 percent of the vote, she fell short of Biden’s 2020 performance of 54 percent in the commonwealth. Her underperformance in Virginia mirrors the broader results of the election, with Trump sweeping all seven swing states.

Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine won reelection to a third term in the U.S. Senate, receiving 54.3 percent to challenger Hung Cao’s 45.5 percent. Support for Kaine was down 2 percent statewide compared to 2018, but the incumbent still had ample support in metro areas, including Charlottesville. Almost 85 percent of Charlottesville voters cast their ballot for Kaine, alongside approximately 66.5 percent of the Albemarle electorate.

Voters in both the 5th and 7th congressional districts have new congressmen, with incumbents in neither district on the ballot November 5.

In the 5th District, Republican up-and-comer John McGuire bested Democrat Gloria Witt by roughly 14 points, winning 56.7 percent of the vote. The result was expected despite Charlottesville and Albemarle both leaning heavily toward Witt. The district spans much of the south central part of the state to the North Carolina border, and heavily favors Republican candidates despite the inclusion of Charlottesville. Incumbent Rep. Bob Good will vacate the seat in January 2025.

A small portion of Albemarle and surrounding counties are in the 7th District, which narrowly chose Eugene Vindman (D) over Derrick Anderson (R). While Vindman received approximately 51.1 percent of the vote, the Albemarle portion of VA-7 leaned heavily Republican this election cycle.

At press time, party control of the House of Representatives was still too close to call.

Looking down-ballot, localities largely stuck with the status quo. In the Rio Magisterial District, Albemarle voters elected appointee Chuck Pace to serve out the remaining year of now-Del. Katrina Callsen’s term on the school board. The seat will be back on the ballot next fall for a regular election.

Orange County had multiple Town Council races this year, with Emily Winkey and Stevean Irving II elected to council in Gordonsville and James Cluff and Delmer Seal Jr. elected to council in the town of Orange.

In Scottsville, the mayoral race was still too close to call at press time, with current Mayor Ron Smith ahead by two votes in the deadlocked race. Results are expected in the coming days, with the statewide deadline for certification on November 15.

Beyond the handful of uncontested elections across the commonwealth, Virginians also found common ground on the constitutional amendment on the ballot. Roughly 93 percent of voters approved for the state constitution to expand a tax exemption to surviving spouses of soldiers who died in the line of duty.

Unofficial results from the Virginia Department of Elections were collected by C-VILLE at 2:30pm on November 11. Exact data may continue to change until results are formally certified.

Categories
News

Election results for the VA-5 Republican primary still aren’t certified

More than a week after election day, the results of the Republican primary in Virginia’s 5th district remain up in the air. After a campaign riddled with barbs between incumbent Bob Good and state Senator John McGuire, election day saw a razor-thin margin between the two ultra-conservatives.

Things in the 5th district have been ramping up for months and fully kicked into overdrive when Donald Trump endorsed McGuire in late May. Though Good has since endorsed Trump’s 2024 bid for the presidency, his original backing of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis soured him to Trump loyalists in the Republican party.

“Bob Good is BAD FOR VIRGINIA, AND BAD FOR THE USA,” Trump shared in a May 28 Truth Social post formally endorsing McGuire. “He turned his back on our incredible movement and was constantly attacking and fighting me until recently.”

Between the Trump endorsement and McGuire’s accelerated fundraising leading up to the primary, Miles Coleman, associate editor of the Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, says, “If there was any surprise here, it’s that Good held up as well as he did. … For [Good] only to lose by a relative handful of votes, I think that says something about how resilient he was.”

Vote totals point toward a narrow victory for McGuire, but Good has told constituents not to count him out yet.

“This race remains too close to call,” Good posted on X/Twitter on June 19. “We are asking for full transparency from the officials involved and patience from the people of the 5th District over the coming weeks as the certification of results is completed. We believe we can still prevail.”

Since election day, Good and his supporters have become increasingly critical of the results, with the congressman blaming election fraud for his potential loss. Campaign Manager Diana Shores repeated these claims in a comment via email, citing concerns around procedural issues in Albemarle County, Buckingham County, and Lynchburg.

McGuire’s team has not addressed the allegations of election fraud in the 5th district primary. The challenger declared victory just after midnight on June 19, well before any election results could be verified.

“My life is a testament to the fact that America is the greatest country on this planet and I’m so honored to have the chance to serve her again,” McGuire shared on X/Twitter. “Folks in the 5th can rest assured that should they elect me in Nov., they will have an effective fighter in Congress who will get the job done for them.”

As of press time, the results of the race have not been certified, but Good has preemptively called for a recount and investigation of election practices. He has also cited concerns about fires at three precincts on election day. No actual fires occurred at the precincts, though election officials told ABC 13 that fire alarms were triggered at three precincts. Voting access was reportedly restored at each location within 30 minutes.

Current counts have McGuire ahead by 344 votes.

“There is a saying among poll workers: May your turnout be high and your margins wide,” says Coleman. “This election kind of had neither, because it was fairly low turnout and … the margin obviously isn’t wide.”

Accusations of election fraud aren’t common among members of the same party, but both Good and McGuire have a history of election denial. Both candidates publicly questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election, with McGuire attending a “Stop the Steal” event on January 6, 2021, and Good voting against certifying election results as a member of the House.

If Good ends up losing the primary, Coleman says it’s anyone’s guess whether he doubles down as an “agent of chaos” or tries to improve his relationship with Republican leadership in anticipation of future campaign efforts.

While either McGuire or Good will still have to face Democratic primary winner Gloria Witt in November, whoever wins the Republican primary is likely to win the general election, according to Coleman.

“I would still put [VA-5 as] safe Republican,” he says. “This is a district where the Democrats can get maybe 45 to 46 percent of the vote pretty easily, but getting much past that is hard. … The last time this [district] flipped to a Democrat was in ‘08 with Tom Perriello.”

Control of the House of Representatives is expected to be close between the two parties this year, leading Democrats to focus resources on more competitive races.

“From the Democratic perspective, they have a few targets in Virginia that are kind of sexier,” says Coleman. “They very much want to oust Kiggans in the Virginia Beach area. District 7, the Spanberger seat, well that is a blue district, but one that they can’t take for granted.”

As of press time, a timeline for the recount in the VA-5 Republican primary has not been announced.

Categories
News

The Good fight

As the Republican primary in Virginia’s 5th district reaches a conclusion on June 18, a poll released by the Virginia Faith & Freedom Coalition shows Virginia Senator John McGuire
(R-Goochland) with a 10 percent lead
over his opponent, incumbent Rep. Bob Good (R-VA). 

Despite Good’s position as the head of the ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus and his professed loyalty to the GOP shot-caller, former President and recently convicted felon Donald Trump, his endorsement of presidential candidate and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in early May seems to have been what soured the Trump loyalists against his campaign. McGuire received the former president’s seal of approval on May 28, quickly capitalizing on Trump’s popularity in the deeply red 5th district as the former president’s account on his Truth Social platform accused Good of being “BAD for Virginia” and saying he had “turned his back on our incredible movement.”

A little over 48 hours after this endorsement of his opponent, Good’s problems appeared to only get worse, as Trump’s lawyers sent the Congressman a cease-and-desist letter over campaign signage featuring both Good’s and Trump’s names, accusing Good of being “a fraud.”

“It has come to our attention that your campaign is producing yard signs purporting to indicate President Trump’s endorsement of your candidacy,” the letter from attorney David Warrington read. “You know that is false. In fact, President Trump has endorsed your opponent, John McGuire.”

Many residents of the 5th district will likely know that the signs in question predate the endorsement of McGuire and are reportedly from the 2022 campaign, in which Bob Good had the endorsement of the former president; nevertheless, there are unconfirmed reports that the signs bearing both names are still being distributed at campaign events in the area. 

As the primary entered its final weeks, it appeared to be smooth sailing for McGuire, who has run in successive elections in recent years at both the federal and state levels. Then, on June 6, an open letter was released from the 5th District Republican Committee to Trump bearing the signatures of prominent local Republicans, urging the former president to reconsider his endorsement.

“[McGuire] has a history of lying to the voters and only representing his own ambitions rather than the needs of his constituents. In 2023, he repeatedly told voters that he would not run against Congressman Bob Good only to file to run for Congress less than 2 weeks after he was elected to the Virginia Senate and before he was even sworn into office,” the letter read. 

McGuire was elected first in 2017, running a successful campaign for the 56th district of the House of Delegates against Democrat Melissa Dart. Then, in 2019, he ran for reelection successfully against Democrat Juanita Jo Matkins and again in 2021. In 2020 and 2022, he launched unsuccessful bids for U.S. Congress in the 7th district, losing to Nick Freitas and Yesli Vega, respectively, both of whom would go on to lose the general election to Rep. Abigail Spanberger. In 2023, he ran for State Senate unopposed in District 10, and while his promises of not running against Good are unconfirmed, he did announce one week after winning his seat—and prior to taking his oath of office—that he was running for the 5th District of Virginia in the United States Congress.

McGuire, a veteran and owner of a personal training company called Seal Team Physical Training, wouldn’t be the first primary challenger to make headlines by upsetting a powerful congressional Republican. In 2014, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor was upset by Republican and Randolph-Macon Professor Dave Brat. That election made national headlines and was described by the LA Times as “one of the greatest political upsets in modern times,” with Cantor out-spending Brat 40-to-1. 

According to VPAP, as of March 31, Good had raised $855,792 to McGuire’s $496,447. Their expenditure data was not yet available at press time, but independent expenditures—money that third party groups had spent to run ads for or against one of the candidates—totaled to almost $8.5 million. Pro-McGuire and anti-Good ads totaled to just over $5 million, and pro-Good/anti-McGuire ads accounted for the other $3.5.

Andre Henline, a Louisa County business owner and long-time Republican, said that he was “team McGuire.” When asked if he could articulate why, he said that it was a combination of McGuire’s personal touch and Good’s incessant attack ads.

“I’ve met [McGuire] a handful of times in Mineral,” he said. “[Good’s] campaign is bugging the shit out of me. His campaign smearing [the opponent] really turns me off.”

Neither candidate is without controversy. McGuire’s presence at the January 6 riot at the capitol—though he says he never entered the capitol building—has been a frequent point of contention for his detractors. Good, however, is a proud member of what is informally called the “Sedition Caucus,” a disparaging nickname for the members of the house and senate who voted not to certify the election of Joe Biden. Former Capitol Police Officer Michael Fanone recently said publicly that both Good and McGuire should be barred from holding public office because of their support of the former president’s actions in 2020.

The winner of the Republican primary will face off against one of the three Democrats—Paul Riley, Gary Terry, and Gloria Tinsley Witt—running in the Democratic primary, which also ends June 18.  

Neither Republican candidate returned repeated messages seeking comment in time for publication.