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That’s all, folks: Donald Trump wins, and the Odd Dominion turns out the lights

Just so you know, I had always planned to make this the final edition of the Odd Dominion column. When I first started scribbling this occasionally amusing trifle way back at the dawn of 2007, I assumed that I’d keep writing it until I ran out of jokes, or material, or both. Now, I’ll be the first to admit that, at times, the jokes have been pretty thin, but, as it turns out, the world of Virginia politics is a never-ending cornucopia of ridiculous shenanigans. And so, if I so desired, I could continue to crank out these little pearls of political punditry ad infinitum (and, I’m sure some readers would grumble, ad nauseum). But after nearly a decade of bi-weekly columns, I realized a few months ago that I was running out of steam, and that finding funny and/or insightful things to say about the current state of Virginia politics was getting harder and harder.

And then, of course, there was the Trump problem. Even before the unimaginable, horrific electoral triumph of that carrot-colored cretin, the task of writing about him—and what his success says about the state of American racial and gender politics—was almost too depressing to bear. See, when I started this column all those years ago, its main purpose was to make fun of pols who were as ridiculous as Trump, but nowhere near as duplicitous and dangerous. In fact, the impetus for the entire column was an event—now lost to the sands of political time—involving then-U.S. Representative Virgil Goode, who had written a constituent letter decrying the use of a Quran by newly elected Muslim congressman Keith Ellison during his swearing-in ceremony. “If American citizens don’t wake up and adopt the Virgil Goode position on immigration,” he warned, hilariously employing the third person, “there will likely be many more Muslims elected to office.”

The letter was obtained and published by C-VILLE’s Erika Howsare, and made some national news, as overt Muslim-bashing by politicians was still considered bad form back then. But here’s the thing: Goode, along with other early Odd Dominion targets such as George “Macaca” Allen and unrelenting ambition machine Eric Cantor, was at best comic relief, and at worst merely symbolic of how darker, nativist strains of political thought get woven into the fabric of our imperfect democracy.

But Trump is different. He is a true monster and a sociopath: an ignorant buffoon who has no driving force save ambition and no moral compass to speak of. I fully realize that his ascendancy to the presidency of the United States was supported by a large minority of American voters, and that many of those voters are hurting economically and feel culturally assailed. I realize this, and I do not care. Every single person who voted for Trump voted to give a racist, sexist, anti-semitic, narcissistic demagogue the keys to the world’s most powerful democracy, and by doing so has debased the very idea of America, and put the future of our great country in peril.

And yes, I got it wrong. I, who always prided myself on my peerless prognosticating ability, was absolutely certain that the country that I love could not possibly put a man as unqualified and destabilizing as Donald J. Trump in the White House. But you know what? I’m not embarrassed or chagrined about getting it wrong. I got it wrong because I believed in the innate goodness of the American people, and trusted in our collective ability to make the right choice, even if we were angry and in pain and felt like lashing out.

This time, however, we couldn’t manage to do that. Next time, I pray that we will. I won’t be around to write about it, but I pray that we will.

Odd Dominion was an unabashedly liberal, twice-monthly op-ed column covering Virginia politics. It was encouraged, crafted and whipped into shape by a truly talented group of journalists and editors, chief among them Cathy Harding, Graelyn Brashear, Lisa Provence and Jessica Luck. Thank you for reading.

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Opinion

Faraway, so close: What does the future hold?

Although it seems almost impossible to believe, this is the final column we will publish before the awesomely epic election of 2016. Yes, we will pen one more before the last votes are cast and counted, but it will not see the light of day until the polling places have closed, and the new president and Congress of the United States have emerged from the bitter clouds of dust kicked up during this acrimonious election season.

This, of course, has put us in a contemplative state of mind. Not so much about the eventual outcome, which—at least at the top of the ticket—seems clear. No, we’ve been thinking more about what comes after, and whether or not this magnificent republic of ours can somehow find its way back to normalcy. Much of this depends on the actions and reactions of a small minority of politicians and voters—mostly elephants, but also amongst die-hard donkeys, as well.

First, a quick look at the state of play. As election day nears, it is increasingly obvious that Republican standard-bearer Donald J. Trump is courting a catastrophic landslide defeat. Will it be Goldwater ’64, McGovern ’72, Mondale ’84 territory? Perhaps not quite that bad, but definitely close. And this historic drubbing is certain to have a huge down-ballot effect, which is why Republican strategists are currently in such a panic.

The problem is that there’s no real solution to a problem like Trump. In Virginia, which the Trump campaign has essentially abandoned, Republican congress-critters have tried a variety of tactics, none of them particularly effective. Delegate Scott Taylor, who is running to replace the 2nd District’s retiring Representative Scott Rigell, has been a loyal Trump surrogate, and thus lashed himself to an immensely unpopular  candidate who, according to recent polls, is trailing Hillary Clinton by 12 points in the commonwealth. Conversely, in the more moderate 10th District, Representative Barbara Comstock has been harshly critical of Trump, and yet is still in real danger of losing her reelection bid due to disaffected Republican voters punishing her for her apostasy.

And here in the 5th District, state Republican Senator Tom Garrett—who has condemned Trump’s behavior but still supports him—has been caught flat-footed by Democrat Jane Dittmar, who has consistently out-fundraised him and was recently endorsed by President Obama.

It’s also here where some of the more malevolent forces at work in this election have unexpectedly erupted. The most prominent incident involved two Trump supporters who parked outside of Dittmar’s Palmyra office for 12 hours, openly brandishing guns and holding up Trump signs. When this threatening maneuver got national press, Dittmar’s Facebook page was so overwhelmed with abusive rhetoric that she had to temporarily shut it down.

Things got so nasty, in fact, that—in the wake of conservative bloggers posting documents purporting to show that Dittmar was convicted of a DUI in 1999 (she was not)—Garrett actually showed up at a Dittmar event on the Downtown Mall to join in her calls for greater civility (see page 12).

Unfortunately, it’s not at all clear that civility is what we’re going to get in the wake of this unprecedented, frequently stomach-churning election. As long as Trump persists with his idiotic claims of a “rigged election,” and continues to encourage an army of poll-watching partisans to show up (armed, if possible) and confront non-white citizens as they arrive to vote, then the aftermath of this presidential pie fight could be even worse than the main event.

And in that case, we all lose.

Odd Dominion is an unabashedly liberal, twice-monthly op-ed column covering Virginia politics.

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The home stretch: Galloping toward the electoral finish line

Believe it or not, election day 2016 is now less than eight weeks away, which means that finally—after a seeming eternity of arguments, attack ads, innuendo and outrageous antics—Virginians will get a chance to vote and, in so doing, put this interminable election season out of its misery. And so, as we gear up for the campaigns’ crucial final push, it seems a good time to pause and take a look at the current lay of the land.

1) The race is tightening… After gaining and maintaining a large post-convention polling bump, Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump in national polls has shrunk considerably. While she was once up by as much as eight percentage points, her national polling average now shows a lead of around 3 percent. There are myriad reasons for this, but the largest factor is the disparate treatment the candidates are getting for their various misdeeds. Clinton’s minor transgressions (such as using a personal e-mail server while secretary of state or not disclosing she’d been diagnosed with pneumonia) have been receiving saturation coverage, while Trump’s far more numerous and severe ethical lapses (more on these later) are mentioned sporadically, and have yet to become part of the larger press narrative, which is basically, “Trump is crazy, Clinton is untrustworthy and voters hate them both.”

2) …but not enough for Trump to win Virginia. Based on current trends, it looks like the Old Dominion’s reputation as a right-leaning swing state is now fully defunct, at least in national elections. Clinton is leading Trump by more than 5 percent on average and, more tellingly, both her campaign and affiliated super-PAC have largely ceased advertising in the state. Yes, Trump recently announced a $2 million Virginia ad buy, and sat for a national security talk in front of a friendly audience in Hampton Roads, but at this juncture it seems that Virginia is far out of Republican reach.

3) The shadow campaign for Tim Kaine’s senate seat heats up. Once Tim Kaine assumes the vice presidency, Governor Terry McAuliffe will get the rare chance to appoint one of only 100 U.S. senators—but the story won’t end there. Due to quirks in both the Virginia and U.S. constitutions, whomever McAuliffe appoints will have to defend the seat in a special election next November, and then win yet another election in 2018, when Kaine’s seat is up in the constitutionally mandated, biannually rotating sexennial senate electoral cycle (say that three times fast). Although U.S. Representative Bobby Scott is considered the odds-on favorite, a recent Washington Post article revealed that McAuliffe has heard from around 20 people “indicating an interest in the seat,” while also pointing out that Scott, who has never run a statewide campaign, would be under intense pressure to hold the seat through two high-stakes elections. But if you ask us, Scott’s basically a lock for the appointment, electoral concerns notwithstanding.

4) Bob McDonnell is not going to jail, which is good news for Donald Trump. Finally, we would be remiss not to mention the news that our favorite helmet-haired grifter, ex-governor Bob McDonnell, is not going to be re-prosecuted by the U.S. Department of Justice (his initial conviction on corruption charges was overturned by the Supreme Court earlier this year). This, oddly enough, has yuuuuge implications for Donald Trump, who could conceivably face similar “pay-to-play” charges for donating $25,000 to Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi just days before she declined to pursue a criminal case against the now-defunct fraud factory known as Trump University. But given the feds’ decision not to retry McDonnell, the chances of them prosecuting The Donald for his overt, obvious and odious bribery seem slim indeed. Sad!

Odd Dominion is an unabashedly liberal, twice-monthly op-ed column covering Virginia politics.

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Opinion

Voting wars: The fight for the franchise heats up

There’s a basic truism in modern American politics: The more people vote, the more Democrats win. This trend began in 1965, when President Lyndon Johnson signed the Voting Rights Act. This, in turn, prompted Richard Nixon’s electoral “southern strategy,” which explicitly courted the racist Dixiecrat wing of the Democratic party, and eventually turned the party of Lincoln into the party of white resentment.

Now, the politics of racial disharmony have worked for the elephants for a very long time. But as it becomes increasingly obvious that demographic trends pose an existential threat to the current incarnation of the Republican Party, GOP leaders have done everything they can to stem the tide.

The most potent current instrument of voter disenfranchisement is racial gerrymandering, which packs a majority of black and brown voters into the fewest possible districts. But voter suppression comes in all shapes and sizes, and—while the Jim Crow era of poll taxes and rigged literacy tests is thankfully gone—there are still a multitude of legal schemes that serve the same discriminatory end.

Until very recently, Virginia was covered by the “preclearance” section of the Voting Rights Act, which required certain states and districts with a history of voter discrimination to clear any changes to the electoral process with the Justice Department. But in 2013 the U.S. Supreme Court, in a 5-4 decision, dispensed with this requirement, paving the way for a flood of new vote-limiting measures, including voter ID laws, restrictions on early voting and limiting or eliminating polling places in Democratic strongholds.

Virginia’s current requirement that voters produce a valid photo ID at the polls—which was passed in 2013, and upheld by a federal judge earlier this year—is just the most visible of the commonwealth’s vote-suppression tactics. A lesser-known, but far more insidious, disenfranchisement tool is the blandly named Interstate Voter Registration Crosscheck Program. As recently detailed by Rolling Stone’s Greg Palast, Crosscheck was created by ultra-conservative Kansas Secretary of State (and Donald Trump adviser) Kris Kobach, who has long insisted that in-person voter fraud is rampant and ongoing across the United States.

Despite the fact that no evidence of widespread voter fraud has ever been uncovered, Kobach has convinced 28 states, including Virginia, to use Crosscheck, which purports to uncover individuals who are registered to vote in more than one state by comparing voter rolls. Problem is, the program basically matches first and last names and little else, providing completely useless data that skews heavily toward minority voters.

How bad is it? When Palast obtained a copy of Virginia’s Crosscheck report, he discovered that, “in all, 342,556 names were listed as apparently registered to vote in both Virginia and another state as of January 2014.” Of those names, 41,637 “inactive” voters were immediately removed from the rolls, while the rest were sent a nondescript postcard asking them to verify their address. (In a delicious irony, it was recently revealed that Trump’s new campaign chief, Steve Bannon, is registered to vote in Florida, a state in which he has never lived.)

It’s schemes like this that represent a true threat to our participatory democracy, not the false specter of voter fraud. And while there are legitimate measures that can be taken to try to level the playing field—like Governor Terry McAuliffe’s ongoing campaign to restore the voting rights of felons who have already paid their debt to society—the real solution will only come with a Hillary Clinton-appointed Supreme Court justice (or two, or three). With the right-wing lock on the nation’s highest court finally broken, we have no doubt that most, if not all, of these blatantly biased voting laws will be deservedly swept aside.

Odd Dominion is an unabashedly liberal, twice-monthly op-ed column covering Virginia politics.

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Opinion

Uncorrupted: Bob McDonnell gets a free pass

Believe it or not, we were not wholly unsurprised by the recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling invalidating the multiple counts of corruption against former Virginia governor Bob McDonnell. The main reason we were expecting the supremes to issue a “get out of jail free” card for McDonnell is simple: During his tenure as governor, the state laws regulating gift-giving to public officials were so porous that nothing that transpired during his term—no matter how unseemly—actually ran afoul of the law.

But still, the fact that the highest court in the land handed down a unanimous verdict in favor of McDonnell caught us by surprise. This is, after all, a court starkly divided, with the conservative and liberal justices rarely seeing eye-to-eye on anything. And yet, in this tawdry case, they all saw the same thing: a pitiful first couple of Virginia who solicited funds and gifts from a mercenary businessman at every available opportunity, and gave him precious little in return.

And it was this basic lack of reciprocation (the constitutionally condemned “official acts” in return for favors) that saved McDonnell’s hide. Yes, he introduced his generous benefactor Jonnie Williams to numerous state officials, and even hosted a dinner-cum-product-launch for Williams’ tobacco-based “dietary supplement” Anatabloc at the governor’s mansion, but he never actually delivered anything of value.

If this strikes you as a piss-poor standard for judging elected officials, we heartily agree. And yet, at the same time, we completely support this court ruling, as it does exactly what a Supreme Court ruling should do: sets a federal minimum standard for lawful conduct, and leaves it up to each individual state to define how to ensure that its elected officials exceed that standard.

Virginia, it must be said, has done a particularly poor job of regulating institutional corruption. Bob and Maureen McDonnell may be the most high-profile examples of the commonwealth’s special breed of political grifters, but they are far from the only (or worst) offenders.

Indeed, Virginia’s notoriously lax ethics laws have encouraged even the most ambitious and (seemingly) morally upright of politicians to stray into gray territory. Take the case of former governor, current U.S. senator and perpetual Democratic vice presidential contender Tim Kaine. As recently reported by Politico (based on information compiled by the Virginia Public Access Project), Kaine received more than $160,000 in gifts between 2001 and 2009, including an $18,000 Caribbean vacation, $5,500 worth of clothing and an all-expenses-paid trip to an NCAA Final Four game.

Is there evidence that anyone received a quid-pro-quo for these gifts? Absolutely not. And yet, at the same time, the fact that Virginia’s elected officials are routinely showered with baubles and free trips from moneyed interests with business before the legislature is distasteful and wrong.

Yes, ethics laws have been tightened since the McDonnell imbroglio made Virginia a national laughingstock, but not nearly far enough. Now that the supremes have allowed our free-riding former governor to avoid incarceration, we can only hope that the commonwealth’s collective sense of shame will help enact laws that ensure we never see his like again.

Odd Dominion is an unabashedly liberal, twice-monthly op-ed column covering Virginia politics.

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Legal matters: How court rulings will affect the 2016 elections

Although it’s not something most voters tend to notice, Virginia’s upcoming congressional and presidential elections have already, to a surprising large degree, been shaped and remolded by a number of crucial court rulings (with one of the biggest still to come).

The first of these legal battles began way back in 2010, when the General Assembly was fighting over the constitutionally mandated decennial congressional redistricting (say that three times fast).  At the time the GA was split, with the Republican-dominated House of Delegates having approved one plan, and the Democratic-controlled Senate pushing another. The elephants, astutely realizing that they were likely to flip the Senate in the next election, basically sat on their haunches until they gained an additional two seats, and then passed their preferred redistricting plan with an assist from then-lieutenant governor Bill Bolling.

Fast forward six years, and that plan (which, incidentally, had the approval of incumbents from both parties) has been found unconstitutional thanks to its blatant racial gerrymandering, and replaced by a less GOP-friendly map created by a panel of federal judges. The reason that judges drew the new lines is because assembly Republicans played a high-stakes game of chicken, assuming the U.S. Supreme Court would bail them out before the election. But due to the death of Antonin Scalia, among other factors, the supremes refused to hear the case, and thus the elephants’ 8-3 congressional advantage in Virginia is now greatly imperiled.

The second big legal battle was waged over the voter ID law passed by the Republican-controlled assembly after Barack Obama beat Mitt “Moneybags” Romney in the 2012 presidential election. The law requires voters to show an approved form of ID, such as a Virginia driver’s license or U.S. passport, at the polls. If they don’t have one, they are forced to cast a provisional ballot that will only be counted if and when the voter supplies a valid ID to the registrar’s office.

Although the Democratic Party of Virginia fought hard to get this law (which, like all voter ID laws, disproportionately affects poor, elderly and minority voters) overturned, a federal judge recently ruled it constitutional, which means it will be in effect for the current election year, at the very least.

The final big legal clash will be fought during an upcoming special session of Virginia’s supreme court, where the fate of Governor Terry McAuliffe’s recent move to restore the voting rights of more than 200,000 convicted felons will be decided. Republicans have been apoplectic about McAuliffe’s action, and have vowed to overturn it before the November election. The court’s accelerated schedule, along with recent revelations that a small number of felons in prison and on active probation accidentally had their rights restored, indicates that McAuliffe’s clemency order might be in jeopardy, but we won’t know for sure until the ruling arrives.

What’s being lost in all of these skirmishes, however, is the fact that this election almost certainly represents the high-water mark in the GOP’s campaign to systematically disenfranchise as many Democratic voters as possible. With the U.S. Supreme Court now evenly split between liberals and conservatives, and the near-certainty that President Hillary Rodham Clinton will select the next two to five justices, the long-term prospects for strict voter ID laws and extreme racial gerrymandering are looking grim. As is the fate of the Donald Trump-led Republican Party, for that matter.

So watch out, all you mollycoddled incumbents and vote-suppressing extremists —one day soon you might actually have to start winning elections fair and square.

Odd Dominion is an unabashedly liberal, twice-monthly op-ed column covering Virginia politics.

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Trumped: Whoops! There goes the election

Greetings, dear readers. Before we dive mirthfully into the fact that Donald John Trump is now the de facto Republican presidential nominee, we’d like to hop into the wayback machine and take a quick trip to the evening of Saturday, April 30, when Republican Party of Virginia state convention attendees gathered to approve a slate of delegates for the national GOP convention in July. Now remember: Trump won the Virginia primary, and thus whichever slate was chosen would be obligated to vote for him on the first ballot. But back then, in those halcyon days when the #NeverTrump movement had yet to realize it was a complete joke, the fight to elect anti-Trump delegates (who would theoretically abandon him on the second ballot) was fully engaged.

Leading this fight was former attorney general Ken Cuccinelli, who was there to make sure his preferred candidate, Ted Cruz, dominated the delegate race. Opposing him was Trump’s Virginia campaign chairman Corey Stewart, a Prince William county supervisor and candidate for governor who is, if possible, even more of a nut job than Cuccinelli (to be clear, this may not actually be possible).

As these two tactical geniuses girded themselves for battle, the assembled throng of pumped-up partisans engaged in an unofficial voice vote for the three remaining would-be GOP nominees, which went about as expected. Cruz! (Huge cheer.) Trump! (Less huge cheer.) John Kasich! (A sad smattering of applause that sounded like air leaking from the tail end of a balloon dog.)

But once the actual voting began, it became clear that Trump’s Virginia delegate operation was, like the man himself, a completely disorganized and ad hoc affair, with no actual plan other than to show up and make noise. And so the Cooch steamrolled them, getting a slate approved that was 10-3 in favor of Cruz. Even better, Cuccinelli trash-talked the Trump effort (“This is a competition. And they are incapable of competing effectively on the ground,” he sneered to the Richmond Times-Dispatch), and bragged that he could have easily nabbed all 13 slots, but gave three to Trump as an “olive branch.” (Stewart, charmer that he is, angrily retorted that it was actually a “screw-you branch.”)

And we all know what happened next. Trump romped to victory in the Indiana primary, and Cruz and Kasich immediately dropped out, essentially ceding the nomination to the orange-hued huckster.

The fallout from this insane turn of events is really just beginning, but one thing’s for certain: The electoral prospects of elephants across the commonwealth just took a huge hit. Cuccinelli has already announced that he will not be running for governor in 2017, and Republicans from U.S. Representative Dave Brat to once-and-future gubernatorial hopeful Ed Gillespie have been mouthing the sort of tepid, generic words of support you might use when discussing a future son-in-law whom you secretly despise. (“Republican voters have nominated Donald Trump for president, and I will vote for him against Hillary Clinton,” Gillespie said, issuing a written statement so you couldn’t see him gritting his teeth.)

And so, as we contemplate the upcoming presidential battle for the swing state of Virginia, for once we heartily agree with a Republican strategist, Tucker Martin, who told the Times-Dispatch: “I don’t expect Virginia to be a battleground state this time around. Hillary will win, and I believe she will win handily. And that makes any chance of the Republican Party winning the White House that much more unlikely.”

We couldn’t have put it better ourselves.

Odd Dominion is an unabashedly liberal, twice-monthly op-ed column covering Virginia politics.

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A sorry state: Things could always be worse

Imagine, if you will, an alternate reality version of our beautiful commonwealth. A bizarro Virginia where Ken Cuccinelli won the governorship in 2013, and E.W. “Yoga is a tool of Satan” Jackson was elected lieutenant governor. Now imagine that this dynamic duo were in charge when Senate Bill 41, which would exempt religious organizations from any liability if they chose to discriminate against same-sex couples, hit the governor’s desk.

Is there any doubt that a Governor Cuccinelli would not only sign such a bill, but hold it up as a model for even more discriminatory “religious freedom” legislation? And that Lieutenant Governor Jackson, adding to his long history of outlandish and offensive statements, would be all over the airwaves, yammering on about the “homosexual agenda” and insisting that a “sincerely held religious belief” should allow all manner of discrimination?

Well, sadly, you don’t need to look very far to see this alternate reality in action. Just over our southern border, in the great state of North Carolina, the ugly repercussions of such legislative action are playing out, and the results are sobering, to say the least. Under the thoroughly misguided leadership of Governor Pat McCrory, the Tar Heel State recently rushed through a law that bars local governments from extending civil rights protections to LGBT individuals, while also making it a crime for transgender people to use a bathroom that doesn’t match their biological gender.

This is just the latest in a flurry of similarly discriminatory state laws, but its broad and incoherent provisions (including that basically unenforceable bathroom mandate) have caused a backlash that we imagine Governor McCrory (never the sharpest tool in the shed) did not see coming. Not only have multiple states instituted travel boycotts for government employees, but a large number of companies, including PayPal and Braeburn Pharmaceuticals, have announced that they are reconsidering sizable business investments in the state due to the law, and Bruce Springsteen recently canceled a show in Greensboro, North Carolina.

Now, we will be the first to admit that our own illustrious Governor Terry McAuliffe is far from perfect. (We were particularly cheesed off by the way he undercut Attorney General Mark Herring by summarily reversing a ruling that would have enforced Virginia’s laws on concealed handguns for all visitors to the state.) But his recent vetoes of a number of terrible bills produced during the winter legislative session—including the odious Senate Bill 41—once again demonstrated that Virginia’s voters made the right choice in the last election.

As for North Carolina…well, it pains us to say it, as we have great affection for the state, but the current political leadership deserves all the pain and misery it is currently receiving. We can only hope the majority of voters agree, and throw Governor McCrory out on his ear in the next election.

EDITOR’S NOTE: This week’s column was written before Governor McCrory signed an executive order April 12.

Odd Dominion is an unabashedly liberal, twice-monthly op-ed column covering Virginia politics.

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President Clinton: Get used to it, folks

Okay, we’re calling it. As of this moment, it is virtually guaranteed that Hillary Clinton will be the 45th president of the United States. She has an almost insurmountable delegate lead over her Democratic opponent Bernie Sanders, and even if she should lose every remaining primary and caucus, the Dems’ lack of winner-take-all states makes the chances of Bernie overtaking her in pledged delegates vanishingly slim.

And then, of course, there’s the ongoing disaster that is the Republican primary race. The elephants basically have three choices right now: run with Donald Trump at the top of the ticket and lose; deny Trump, the highest vote-getter by far, the nomination at a contested convention, run somebody else and lose (with The Donald mounting a third-party bid) or break the GOP in half by supporting a “moderate” third-party candidate and lose. There are seriously no other options, and anyone who thinks otherwise hasn’t been paying sufficiently close attention.

And now that we’ve got that settled, we can focus on the more interesting question. Namely, what does a Clinton victory look like, and how will it affect the other races on the ballot, both in Virginia and nationwide? If the Republicans completely surrender to Trump (a distinct possibility) and offer only token resistance before giving him the keys to the Grand Old Party, the result could be a wave election that upends the balance of power both in the U.S. Senate (already a likelihood) and the U.S. House of Representatives (until recently an unthinkable turn of events). If, on the other hand, the Republican establishment explicitly rejects Trump, and allows vulnerable Congress-critters to run against him, they might still salvage their majorities in both chambers.

But it sure ain’t gonna be easy. And making things tougher is the fact that, with the death of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, conservatives have lost an important bulwark in their fight for electoral dominance. This became exceedingly clear last week during oral arguments in  Wittman v. Personhuballah, the Supreme Court case focused on whether Virginia’s 3rd District was drawn by the Republican majority in 2012 to dilute the black vote in surrounding districts.

The answer is yes, without a doubt. But with Scalia on the court this case could have gone either way. Without him, the balance of power has shifted, and it appears likely that the court will either deadlock on the issue—which would mean the district court ruling that found this “racial gerrymandering” unconstitutional would stand—or even muster a 5-3 vote against the practice.

The practical effects of this ruling will mean that Representative Bobby Scott, currently the only black congressman from Virginia, will probably be joined by another Democrat on Capitol Hill, and Republicans will find their sizable majority decreased by two.

Now, considering that the donkeys need to flip a total of 30 seats to retake the House, one might not seem like that big a deal. But with all of the stars seeming to align against the elephants heading into the general election, it’s small defeats like this that could build into a tsunami of electoral misery.

And trust us: Every step Donald Trump takes toward securing the Republican nomination is one more step toward President Clinton beginning her term with both houses of Congress firmly under Democratic control.

Odd Dominion is an unabashedly liberal, twice-monthly op-ed column covering Virginia politics.

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News

Power play: General Assembly Republicans do that thing they do

So here’s the thing: For many who don’t pay close attention, Virginia’s legislature still tends to be viewed through a prism of bipartisan compromise. It is still considered, by some, as an exemplar of the fabled Virginia way, in which all arguments are settled through convivial relations and principled debate, and all members of the General Assembly are equal partners in our great, ongoing democratic experiment.

Well, if  you needed yet another reminder that this idea is an absurd fantasy, the events of the past few weeks should serve as a bracing tonic. In reality, the modern era of the General Assembly has been the story of a rapacious Republican majority riding roughshod over a hapless Democratic minority, with a few periods of incremental gains by team blue soon reversed by team red.

The list of egregious maneuvers by the assembly’s elephants is long, especially on the Senate side (the House of Delegates is so effectively gerrymandered that the Republicans can basically do whatever they want, whenever they want). There was that time they took advantage of the absence of Senator Henry Marsh—a 79-year-old civil rights veteran who was attending President Obama’s second inaugural—to ram through a Republican-friendly redistricting plan. Or the time they bribed Democratic Senator Phil Puckett with offers of a plum position with the state tobacco commission and a judgeship for his daughter to secure his resignation (thereby regaining the majority and dooming Medicaid expansion). Good times!

Which brings us to the strange saga of Judge Stephen R. McCullough, the man who just got a coveted 12-year appointment to the state supreme court. As we have previously documented, the justice that McCullough replaced, Jane Roush, is a well-qualified and respected judge who should have been confirmed without issue. But Senate Republicans oppose almost anything that Governor Terry McAuliffe is for, so they have been working for months to nullify his appointment.

The Republicans’ first attempt to replace Roush was transparently cynical, as they put forward an African-American Court of Appeals judge, Rossie D. Alston, in the apparent hope that they could garner a few Democratic votes to put a historic third black judge on the court. But that plan backfired, as the elephants couldn’t even muster enough votes from the Republican Senate majority to confirm Alston.

So then the weirdness really began. In an unprecedented flurry of activity, Senate Republicans apparently considered a wide variety of options, and then announced they were going to put forward and confirm former attorney general (and losing candidate for governor) Ken Cuccinelli. But before the liberal outrage machine could even warm up, the Cooch withdrew his name from consideration (leaving open the delicious possibility that he will challenge Ed Gillespie for the Republican gubernatorial nomination next year).

Finally, in a surprise move, Senate Republicans quickly elevated deeply conservative Court of Appeals Judge McCullough to the commonwealth’s highest court, going from nomination to confirmation by both chambers in just two days. No one could really explain why McCullough was picked over other possible candidates, although the fact that he worked under Cuccinelli in the attorney general’s office and has expressed admiration for late Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia might have had something to do with it.

But one thing is certain: With their reckless disregard of precedent and destructive desire to win at all costs, the assembly’s elephants have once again shown that they are more than happy to trample their opponents—and the very idea of bipartisan cooperation—to get their way. After all, that’s the new Virginia way.

Odd Dominion is an unabashedly liberal, twice- monthly op-ed column covering Virginia politics.