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Eighteen inches of snow possible by Saturday

The snow flurries predicted for Wednesday are “small potatoes compared to what’s coming,” says Jerry Stenger, director of the State Climatology Office. Snow starting early Friday and continuing thought Saturday evening could bring an accumulation of more than a foot and up to 18 inches, he says.

A low pressure system developing in Louisiana and tracking to the northeast is going to bring moisture into the cold air that’s well entrenched here, says Stenger. “Whatever moisture we get will be in the form of snow,” he says.

Stenger says a light snow will begin “in the wee hours Friday morning,” increase in intensity with heavy snowfall by Friday evening, taper off and likely end sometime Saturday evening.

“It’s probably not going to be a light fluffy snow,” he warns. “It will probably be a wet snow.” And that means it will stick to already cold tree surfaces, increasing the likelihood of downing tree branches. Drooping trees and falling branches will be “clobbering power lines,” he predicts.

The past few years have had above average snowfall. Last winter saw 22.3 inches, and the winter of 2013-2014 brought 37.3 inches, the 16th highest snowfall out of 123 years of record keeping at McCormick Observatory, says Stenger. But that doesn’t touch the Snowpocalyptic winter of 2009-2010 with its record 56.8 inches. After that, “a lot of us have come to thumb our noses at 20 to 30 inches,” says Stenger.

Weather professional Stenger says he keeps plenty of food at his house, and he’ll spend a snow day sitting at his computer, looking at data and fielding media calls. For the rest of us, he suggests, “It may not be a bad day to stay at home.”

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Weather-wise, locals are lucking out

While California is experiencing its worst drought in more than a millennium, South Carolina was subject to extreme flooding in October and western wildfires have burned more than 9 million acres of land this year, one group aims to bring forewarning of extreme weather conditions closer to home.

Environment Virginia, a research and policy center out of Richmond, says weather-related disasters have been declared in all 50 states over the past five years and more than 40 million Americans live in counties that were affected by five or more weather disasters.

In fact, an interactive map the group created shows that 91 percent of Virginia residents live in cities or counties affected recently by weather-related disasters.

“We used to think of climate change as a problem that would happen someday, somewhere,” says Lilias Gordon, the group’s global warming solutions manager in a press release. “But as this map helps demonstrate, global warming is happening now, and it’s already hitting close to home.”

Luckily, Charlottesville and Albemarle County have only been marked with two snowstorms and one severe storm each, from the years 2007 to 2012. Here’s looking at you, Snowpocalypse of December 2009, and your two feet of heavy, white powder.

King and Queen County, just a few counties over on the east coast, is marked with two hurricanes and two severe storms.

Check out the map here.