With less than a week to go before Election Day, voters have either already cast their ballots or are preparing to head to the polls. Ahead of November 7, we take a look at local and legislative races, party control of the state legislature, and what different outcomes could mean for the Charlottesville area.
After an exciting primary season, local legislative elections are expected to be relatively routine. “Both of our legislative chambers are pretty safely Democratic,” says Miles Coleman from the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ Crystal Ball.
While Crystal Ball focuses on national races, Coleman offered his personal insight into the upcoming elections. He says those to watch include the 55th District House of Delegates race and the Albemarle County School Board at-large election.
Around Charlottesville, voters will cast their ballots in either the 54th or 55th House of Delegates District. Katrina Callsen is running unopposed in the 54th, while in the 55th, Democrat Amy Laufer is heavily favored against Republican Steve Harvey.
“Maybe the Republicans are looking to make a play at District 55,” says Coleman. “But to me, that is a seat that Youngkin got 44 percent of the vote … that’s probably your Republican ceiling. And if they do any better than that, that may catch my attention.”
In Albemarle County, voters will decide between Allison Spillman and Meg Bryce for the Albemarle County School Board at-large seat, a race where both candidates have spent unusually large amounts of money: Spillman and Bryce respectively raised $111,462 and $106,559 as of September 30, 2023, according to the Virginia Public Access Project.
Beyond spending, the contest interests Coleman because of its quasi-partisan nature. “It’s technically a non-partisan race, but it’s sort of caught my attention that it’s almost become a partisan race,” he says. Throughout her campaign, Spillman has aligned herself with Democratic values, and framed Bryce as a conservative due to both her platform and father, late Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia. “Even in a non-partisan race, it’s a very steep climb for a candidate who’s been sort of labeled as a conservative, fairly or not,” he says.
He doesn’t have a prediction for the ACPS school board at-large election, but Coleman says, “I think the general trend of the area has sort of hurt [Bryce]. I think just 10 years ago or so Albemarle County was more of a marginal political area. … Now it’s more like a 65 [to] 70 percent Democratic area.”
In the state Senate, Coleman expects incumbent Creigh Deeds to easily beat his Republican challenger Philip Hamilton in the newly drawn 11th District.
While both chambers of the state legislature are up for grabs, Coleman predicts the Democrats will likely retain control of the state Senate. “If you look at the 2021 governor breakdown, Youngkin, even though he won in 2021, would have only carried 20 of the 40 seats in the state Senate,” he says. “All Democrats have to do, assuming they win all of the [former governor] McAuliffe districts, which I think they’re in decent shape to pull along … [is] pull off one of those close Youngkin seats.”
In the Virginia House of Delegates, party control is more of a toss up. Republicans currently hold a slim majority in the chamber, but that could change if competitive legislative races fall in Democrats’ favor.
“One dynamic I would look for on election night is if it’s sort of a wave election for one party or the other, a lot of the toss-up seats will break just one way or the other,” says Coleman. “I will say generally, that the kind of sources we talk to, it seems like the Democrats are sort of cautiously optimistic that they’ll take both chambers, while the Republicans keep emphasizing that there are just a lot of close races.”
With several legislators retiring, Deeds will soon be the second-most senior member of his caucus. If Democrats retain control of the state Senate, this puts Deeds in a powerful position to advocate for the region.
Charlottesville will have two new representatives in the House of Delegates, which could make getting funding more difficult. “I’m interested to see if those new members are gonna be able to look out for the area and bring home bacon as opposed to some of the more senior members,” says Coleman. “It’s always better to be in the majority, just in terms of passing your agenda. So if the Democrats take the majority, I’ll say broadly, that that would probably be … in favor of the Charlottesville-Albemarle area.”
For more information on polling locations and hours, visit elections.virginia.gov/casting-a-ballot/polling-place-lookup/