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Two experts talk political polarization 

With Election Day less than a month away, political tension and stress abound both locally and nationally. Polarization is definitely a contributing factor to the anxiety, but two experts with Charlottesville ties say we may not be as divided as we think.

Now a faculty member at the University of California Santa Barbara, Tania Israel credits growing up in Charlottesville for shaping her work to bridge the political divide.

“I got into this work in Charlottesville,” she says. After organizing a discussion of pro-choice and pro-life locals in the ’90s, Israel was inspired to continue exploring ideological divides. “It didn’t change anything about how I felt about reproductive rights, but it changed so much about how I felt about people who disagreed with me.”

Rather than taking the political science approach, Israel’s examination of polarization draws on her expertise as a doctor of counseling psychology. Her last two books, Beyond Your Bubble and Facing the Fracture (published this August), have focused on understanding and approaching political polarization.

In her work, Israel has found that “we are not nearly as divided as we think we are, our views are not as far apart as we imagine them to be,” but affective polarization remains a critical issue for American democracy and interpersonal relationships.

Diversity of opinion is an important element in maintaining a healthy democracy, but increasing affective polarization—a positive association with one’s own political party and negative feelings toward the opposing party—diminishes the ability for productive dialogue and solution-making.

In a 2022 study, the PEW Research Center found “increasingly, Republicans and Democrats view not just the opposing party but also the people in that party in a negative light. Growing shares in each party now describe those in the other party as more closed-minded, dishonest, immoral and unintelligent than other Americans.” Further, the amount of respondents holding a negative opinion of both major parties has sharply risen, sitting at 27 percent at the time of the survey.

Miles Coleman, an associate editor for Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, has also noted an increase in both partisan and affective polarization.

“There used to be … more people willing to entertain either side, give their votes to either side. That is not as much a thing anymore,” he says. “Coalitions are more firm now, there are fewer moderate to conservative Democrats or liberal Republicans, so you tend to have more people being … locked into either side.”

Split-ticket, swing, and undecided voters still exist, but misunderstandings around these voters and their positionality is rampant, according to Coleman.

“You do have some voters in the middle who are still willing to vote for either side, but that segment, I feel, is increasingly a smaller and smaller segment of the electorate,” he says. Rather than a moderate portion of the constituency evenly positioned between Democratic and Republican political platforms, numerous swing voters have varying policy positions that contrastingly align with either party.

Conversely, the key undecided group to watch this election cycle is the “double haters,” says Coleman. “These are voters who have unfavorable views of both Harris and Trump. … Those voters who maybe don’t like the high prices, the inflation that we see under Biden, but might not want to go back to the days of Donald Trump.”

Coleman attributes some of the current political climate to media ecosystems. “I blame a lot of this on asocial social media,” he says. “It’s increasingly easy for one side to get kind of their own media ecosystem, their own facts. Both sides, really, to some extent, aren’t even on the same page.”

In her work to bridge this political chasm, Israel has also argued that media and tribal politics have exaggerated and exacerbated polarization.

By design, media are created to attract and maintain engagement, frequently employing tactics to amp up consumer emotions to increase and keep interest. Social media in particular relies and thrives on algorithms, which feed users curated content based on prior activity. Consumers receive and interact with content that incites either strong positive or negative feelings, resulting in ideological “bubbles” of media echoing existing beliefs and combative presentations of opposing viewpoints.

“It’s really hard for us to even think about or want to approach people who have different views, if we have skewed perceptions about who they are,” Israel says. “Study after study for decades has shown that we exaggerate the other side’s views, thinking that they are more extreme than they are, thinking that they are hostile.”

For many Americans, having a political conversation with family and friends across the aisle can be a daunting inevitability, but there are ways to have a civil and meaningful dialogue, according to Israel.

“One of the main reasons people tell me they’re interested in having a conversation with someone who is on the other side of the political divide is because they have somebody who they’re close to, a family member or a friend who they want to stay connected with or repair a relationship with, but it’s really challenging because of the different views,” she says. “Approach with the intention to create a warm and caring connection, where your goal is to understand the other person.”

Through her work, Israel has found listening and trying to understand someone’s perspective to be a key step in holding a productive conversation.

“We think that what we should do is lay out all of the facts and figures and arguments to show the other person that we are right and that they are wrong. It turns out people don’t respond very well to that,” she says. “If we’re listening with the intention to understand, rather than the intention to respond … if we can share our stories …  how we came to care about an issue, or if there was somebody or something that shifted our view about it, that’s a much more effective way to share our perspective.”

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Early birds: Charlottesville and Albemarle see record-setting turnout

By Geremia Di Maro

There’s a line outside the City Hall Annex. Volunteers wearing cardboard posters of ballots circle cheerfully. This year, election season started early.

In Charlottesville, as of October 26, about 14,500 people have voted—a huge increase from the 3,394 total absentee ballots cast in 2016. Roughly 33,000 ballots have been cast this year in Albemarle County, where just 7,317 absentee ballots were cast in 2016. Two million Virginians, and more than 60 million Americans, have already pulled the polling lever.

“In Virginia, this was always going to be a very high-turnout election year,” says Miles Coleman, associate editor for Sabato’s Crystal Ball at UVA’s Center for Politics. “I think we saw some evidence of that even if you look at some of the off years—when Governor [Ralph] Northam was first elected in 2017—the turnout in northern Virginia really was much more than we were used to seeing.”

Virginia is among several states across the country that have sought to make early voting easier during the COVID-19 pandemic. The commonwealth has removed the requirement that mail-in ballots be signed by a witness, and allowed all voters to take advantage of curbside voting, for example. Other initiatives to make voting easier originated in the Democrat-controlled General Assembly this year. The legislature extended the deadline for when absentee ballots can be accepted and lifted long-standing restrictions on absentee voting, which required voters to claim one of several listed excuses to be eligible to vote early.

In Charlottesville, an average of 325 to 400 voters per day have cast their ballots in-person at the City Hall Annex since early voting began, according to Melissa Morton, Charlottesville’s director of elections and general registrar. Morton says the average wait time to vote in-person has been between 15 and 30 minutes, but adds that Fridays have been especially busy, with wait times as long as 45 to 75 minutes.

“We only had two voters who refused to wear masks,” says Morton. “Other voters, and our staff, offered the person a mask but he refused. After the voter voted, our staff disinfected the voting room.”

As of October 24, the City’s Walker Precinct, which makes up the northernmost portion of Charlottesville, was leading in early voter turnout with 2,222 ballots cast. The Venable and Buford precincts, where many off-Grounds UVA students reside, have seen the lowest turnout totals so far with 732 and 879 ballots cast, respectively. This trend generally mirrors the early voter pattern of 2016, although significantly more early votes have been cast across all precincts in Charlottesville this year.

Meanwhile, in Albemarle County, General Registrar of Voters Jake Washburne says early voting turnout so far has represented “a paradigm shift in voting behavior” for the County. Six-hundred to 850 voters have turned out each day to vote in-person at the 5th Street County Office Building. Washburne adds that most people have so far only had to wait five or 10 minutes to cast their ballots in-person.

“Even if the pandemic had not struck, I think we would’ve seen a significant increase in the number of people who would early vote [this year],” says Washburne. “But come COVID, that was like the one-two punch—I think a whole lot of people are concerned about going to a crowded polling place on Election Day with the virus still about.”

One caveat to the voting explosion is that new-voter registrations have declined sharply in Albemarle County compared to previous cycles. Washburne says that in 2016, 3,500 voters registered in the county between August and the registration deadline. That same time frame this year has seen just 1,800 new registrants. Washburne speculates that this decline, which has been especially notable in the precincts near the university, is the result of pandemic-hampered voter registration efforts and students re-registering to vote in their hometowns if they are taking online classes from home.

Nonetheless, voter registration and get-out-the-vote activism has continued on Grounds, says Kiera Goddu, a UVA fourth-year and president of the University Democrats.

“I’ve been taking one first-year [student] at a time—masked and windows down—to the Albemarle registrar’s office, and there have been other drivers who’ve been doing the Charlottesville registrar’s office so that students can vote early in-person and just kind of have it checked off,” says Goddu. “Especially during that period when [COVID-19] cases were at their worst at UVA, and students were most panicked that they wouldn’t be able to stay in their [on-Grounds] housing situation.”

Goddu says the University Democrats have also hosted limited in-person voter registration events twice a week since September. Setting up camp outside the Observatory Hill dining hall, the group registered almost 100 new voters in a single day just before the registration deadline earlier this month.

It’s hard to be sure what all this early voting will mean for election outcomes. Although preliminary estimates show that the surge in early voting across the country may favor Democrats, Coleman says he’d “be cautious [about] reading too much into the early vote.”

“It’s sort of the same way on election night—you don’t want to project a result when there’s only a small fraction of the vote that’s in,” he says.

“The Democrats, of course, have been telling their voters to vote earlier. Contrast that to Trump, who’s very, shall we say, skeptical of the early vote,” says Coleman. “What if it’s a rainy day? What if the virus gets much worse this next week before Election Day? So the Republicans, specifically Trump in encouraging his voters to wait, it could pay off, but it’s also a very risky strategy.”

In Virginia, early voting will continue through Saturday, October 31. On Election Day, polls open at 6am and close at 7pm.