President-elect Joe Biden swept to an easy victory in Virginia last week, carrying the state with 53.9 percent of the vote to Donald Trump’s 44.2 percent, according to data from the Virginia Department of Elections.

In the 5th Congressional District, Democrats weren’t so successful. Dr. Cameron Webb, UVA’s Director of Health Policy and Equity, fell to Bob Good, a Liberty University athletics administrator and Campbell County Supervisor. Observers around the country noted that Webb ran a sharp campaign while Good fumbled through multiple comical scandals, including a committing a potential campaign finance violation by auctioning off an AR-15 rifle at a rally. Heading into election night, FiveThirtyEight called the district a tossup.

Ultimately, however, Good earned 210,986 votes (52.4 percent) to Webb’s 190,313 (47.3 percent).

The huge, largely rural 5th District has voted for a Republican by a comfortable margin ever since it was drawn into its current form in the last round of redistricting. Four different Republican candidates have run in the 5th since 2012, carrying between 52.4 and 60.9 percent of the vote each time.

The map above shows the margin of victory for Cameron Webb and Bob Good in each of the 5th District’s localities.

Though Webb lost to Good by 5.1 percent, there’s evidence to suggest Webb’s campaign did swing some voters into his camp. Webb outperformed Biden, earning around 7,000 more votes than the president-elect in the 5th District.

Still, that wasn’t enough to overcome the challenges presented by the gerrymandered district.

Two years ago, Democrat Leslie Cockburn lost to Republican Denver Riggleman by 6.6 percent in the 5th. In 2020, Webb managed to flip two of the district’s 23 localities, turning Nelson County and Fluvanna County from one-point losses into one-point wins. Webb also expanded on Cockburn’s 2018 performance in Albemarle, the district’s largest locality, winning 68.2 percent of the vote, compared to Cockburn’s 64.6.

Overall, Webb improved on Cockburn’s 2018 vote share in 15 of 23 localities—but he didn’t improve by more than 3.6 percent in a single locality, and he lost ground in some places.

Webb wasn’t able to make serious inroads into the district’s most populous red localities. In Pittsylvania and Fauquier counties, the district’s two largest localities outside of Charlottesville-Albemarle, Webb won 32.2 percent and 42.1 percent of the vote, respectively. For comparison, in 2018 Cockburn won 30.8 percent in Pittsylvania and 42.4 percent in Fauquier.

“It has truly been an honor to run to represent this district in Congress,” Webb wrote in a statement conceding the race on Tuesday. “This campaign has been a battle of ideas about how to best serve the people of our district and I cannot give enough thanks to everyone who made it possible.”

“Tonight is a victory for the conservative values that founded and sustain this nation, for biblical principles, the sanctity of life, religious liberty, free market capitalism and the importance of faith and family,” Good wrote after his victory.

Democrat Mark Warner also ran ahead of Biden, winning re-election to the U.S. Senate with 55.9 percent of the vote. Two Virginia Dems who flipped red seats in 2018 hung on to their districts this time around. In the 2nd, Elaine Luria beat Republican Scott Taylor for the second time in two years, widening her margin of victory to 5.4 percent, and in the 7th, Abigail Spanberger beat Delegate Nick Freitas by about 8,000 votes.

Virginia Republicans have now lost four straight presidential elections, four straight senate races, and two straight governor’s races. (Not that we’re counting.) Last time Republicans won statewide office was in 2009, when Bob McDonnell was elected governor, and he wound up being charged with a felony and narrowly avoiding prison. This year, the party ran Freitas—last spotted losing to far-right Confederate enthusiast Corey Stewart in the 2018 senate primary—in a winnable congressional race. Republicans don’t have much time on their hands if they want to right the ship before the next governor’s race next November.

Further down the ballot, Virginians overwhelmingly voted to pass an amendment to the Virginia constitution that will reform the way the state draws U.S. congressional and state legislative districts. The amendment places the responsibility for drawing district lines with a bipartisan commission comprised of citizens and legislators of both parties, rather than allowing the majority party to draw lines however they prefer. Some House of Delegates Democrats opposed the measure, claiming that it wasn’t a strong enough reform, but the proposal passed with the support of 65.8 percent of voters.

In a perfect world, new lines will be drawn in time for the 2021 House of Delegates elections. It’s possible, though, that a census delayed by coronavirus could mean new data isn’t available until the 2022 congressional races.

Second chance

City Council approves Flint Hill development

After nearly an hour of discussion, and midway through a meeting that lasted until 2:30am, City Council voted July 20 to move forward with the Flint Hill housing development, a set of new homes to be constructed in Fry’s Spring.

Last year, council rejected an initial proposal for the project, but Southern Development has since made substantial changes to its plan. It now wants to build 37 single-family homes and two eight-unit condominium buildings, dumping its original plan for 50 townhouses.

The developers have also boosted the number of affordable units, from 10 percent to at least 15 percent. The units will be affordable for 30 years, and priced to house residents from 25 to 60 percent of area median income.

With a density of six units per acre, there will be some room left for homeowners to add accessory dwelling units, such as a basement apartment or guest house. And there will be almost five acres of green space along Moores Creek, including trails and places to gather.

Last month, the Charlottesville Planning Commission unanimously endorsed the revamped plans.

Habitat for Humanity of Greater Charlottesville has partnered with Southern Development, and will build 30 percent of the units. Because the average area median income for Habitat families is 32 percent, Habitat’s president, Dan Rosensweig, said that Flint Hill would be “really good” for them, and for the city.

“It’s the kind of neighborhood our families have told us they’d like to live in,” he added. “This isn’t an answer to all affordable housing issues…[but] we’re really excited to be part of this project.”

Multiple people voiced their support for the development during public comment, including a current Habitat homeowner.

While Mayor Nikuyah Walker had several concerns, including when families would be able to move into the affordable units, she admitted the project was “better than anything” she’s seen regarding affordable housing since she’s been on council.

Two ordinances and a resolution for the development will be put on the consent agenda for council’s next meeting on August 3, and the project will move forward from there.

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Quote of the week

“As you consider defunding the police, my message to you is to fund diversity in crisis responders…[The public mental health system] has just as much systemic bias issues as law enforcement.”

—Black mental health advocate Myra Anderson, speaking to City Council.

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In brief

Military grade

On Monday, City Council voted to ban the Charlottesville Police Department from obtaining weapons from the military and participating in military training. But ahead of the meeting, Planning Commission member Rory Stolzenberg pointed out a variety of loopholes in the resolution—military equipment could still be purchased from private sellers, and the resolution doesn’t address the military-style equipment already in CPD’s arsenal. Stolzenberg, along with other public speakers, urged council to pull the policy from the consent agenda and strengthen it, but council passed the resolution anyway. “Just because it’s not pulled tonight, doesn’t mean we’re not going to work on this,” said Vice-Mayor Sena Magill.

Beer and spirits

Three Notch’d Brewing Company is the latest local business to strip Confederate imagery from its brand. For years, the Charlottesville-based brewers have been selling The Ghost APA, which is named for John S. Mosby, a Charlottesville native and Confederate officer nicknamed the Gray Ghost. The beer will now be called Ghost of the James, a reference to the reserve fleet of U.S. military boats currently stored on the river. The packaging has shifted from gray to blue.

Freitas tries again

Last week, Nick Freitas won the Republican primary to challenge freshman U.S. Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger for Virginia’s competitive 10th District seat. Freitas lost to far-right statue defender Corey Stewart in the 2018 Republican U.S. Senate primary, and won his current seat in the House of Delegates through a write-in campaign, after failing to file paperwork to get himself on the ballot. He nearly made the same mistake this year, but the Virginia Board of Elections extended the deadline for filing, a move the Democratic Party has contested.